Well, here goes
I wrote a blog yesterday and talked about the fact that I don't know with a certainty that we are secure from a nuclear accident. Because I live in the "Third Word" or the "developing" world, this insecurity is re-inforced every day because I see societies and people that are determined to go their own way. Of course, this includes, nuclear weaponization and security. There is no political cohesion like there is between Europe and America or Russia and America. So, I wrote that somebody is going to break with the pact and try a dirty bomb. India is the most vulnerable country and New York is the most vulnerable city. India is so at risk because it is completely encircled by hostile, ________neighbors: Burma, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, West Bengal. New York is so at risk because there has already been 1 very successful attack on Manhattan in the broad daylight. So far Iran and N. Korea have appeared to be quite willing to develope a dirty bomb; how they are going to use it is the largely unanswered question.
What do the probability studies project about this? I would guess that there is a more than 85%chance that both of these countries will never surrender to some kind of "trust me with a nuclear bomb" scenario.
What we have to figure out is what does this 85% probability include.
These are my thoughts for today.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010: Sihanoukville, Cambodia
Here goes,
I don't know why I have cut back so much on writing on my blog because I think the insights are valuable. I guess it is because I am not sure what I am supposed to say. So, I am just going to say what comes into my mind and how I feel about something.
I have got myself caught up in somekind of quandry again about where to go to next. I have been living in SE Asia for 3 years between Cambodia and Thailand, but I do not know what the parameters of free expression are here. Maybe this is what has caused the quandry. For example, when I was leaving Thailand, I had to go around Bangkok in the middle of the night because the route between 2 of the bus stations was closed off during the day. When I arrived in Trat I got sick for 2 days and spent most of the time in the john. Actually I got nausea a lot in Thailand and do not know why. I got sick when I first arrived there and was staying at Boom Bay Bungalows; then I got naseau again just before I was going to leave. I got this nausea just after I called my bank in Florida about a funds' transfer. This lasted to 2 days too. So, I don't know why all this illness but I did not analyze it either. In the end, when I was in Trat, I decided it was the heat. I can't take the heat; it is too hard on my heart at 68. Now here in Cambodia I have been pretty good except for my eyes. A lot of tearing and sore eyes - both conditions that I do not like. The eye situation is much more serious because it involves my head.
So, I have been thinking that the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is not going to hold and somebody is going to break with the pack and use a dirty bomb. I think India is extremely vulnerable because it is completely surrounded by hostile neighbors who are much less prosperous and not very transparent. I actually think India is more vulnerable than S. Korea. North Korea says it is a nuclear power, but I don't think it knows how to use it successfully. It does have a friendship agreement with Iran, but that is all; it does not have a friendship treaty with China.
Cambodia - why am I in Cambodia? I thought I would come here and do some reading again but actually I have been working on the computer, mostly with issues having to do with the Gulf or other environmental issues. The Gulf of Mexico is my tragedy too because I am from Ft. Myers and went to the beach for 24 years. So, I have been spending a lot of my time corresponding with others about the Gulf. Now, the Gulf Region has shown itself to
be extremely vulnerable to exploitation. I, personally, think the most important thing is for the Gulf Region to deal with the exploitation first so that the cultures are secure and financially sustainable. But, each state feels differently about the off-shore drilling and the ban which just goes to show that a fractured political region is anybody's game. Because there is a big difference between Louisiana and Florida, this region has not seen the last of oil spills. I go with Florida and the environmental position. Now back to Cambodia.
I am back staying at the same place I stayed in 2 years ago because the apartments are nice, there is no flooding in the torrential rains, it is cooler and there are some good book stores. These are usually not the reasons why I stay somewhere, I usually stay somewhere because of historical value, but I stay somewhere that is safe during the monsoon. When this one is over I am either staying here or going back to India. I think that Thailand is putting off the inevitable saying today is more important that yesterday, tomorrow or quality of life for the "little folk".
This is what I have said for today. I have to get my bearings first.
I don't know why I have cut back so much on writing on my blog because I think the insights are valuable. I guess it is because I am not sure what I am supposed to say. So, I am just going to say what comes into my mind and how I feel about something.
I have got myself caught up in somekind of quandry again about where to go to next. I have been living in SE Asia for 3 years between Cambodia and Thailand, but I do not know what the parameters of free expression are here. Maybe this is what has caused the quandry. For example, when I was leaving Thailand, I had to go around Bangkok in the middle of the night because the route between 2 of the bus stations was closed off during the day. When I arrived in Trat I got sick for 2 days and spent most of the time in the john. Actually I got nausea a lot in Thailand and do not know why. I got sick when I first arrived there and was staying at Boom Bay Bungalows; then I got naseau again just before I was going to leave. I got this nausea just after I called my bank in Florida about a funds' transfer. This lasted to 2 days too. So, I don't know why all this illness but I did not analyze it either. In the end, when I was in Trat, I decided it was the heat. I can't take the heat; it is too hard on my heart at 68. Now here in Cambodia I have been pretty good except for my eyes. A lot of tearing and sore eyes - both conditions that I do not like. The eye situation is much more serious because it involves my head.
So, I have been thinking that the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is not going to hold and somebody is going to break with the pack and use a dirty bomb. I think India is extremely vulnerable because it is completely surrounded by hostile neighbors who are much less prosperous and not very transparent. I actually think India is more vulnerable than S. Korea. North Korea says it is a nuclear power, but I don't think it knows how to use it successfully. It does have a friendship agreement with Iran, but that is all; it does not have a friendship treaty with China.
Cambodia - why am I in Cambodia? I thought I would come here and do some reading again but actually I have been working on the computer, mostly with issues having to do with the Gulf or other environmental issues. The Gulf of Mexico is my tragedy too because I am from Ft. Myers and went to the beach for 24 years. So, I have been spending a lot of my time corresponding with others about the Gulf. Now, the Gulf Region has shown itself to
be extremely vulnerable to exploitation. I, personally, think the most important thing is for the Gulf Region to deal with the exploitation first so that the cultures are secure and financially sustainable. But, each state feels differently about the off-shore drilling and the ban which just goes to show that a fractured political region is anybody's game. Because there is a big difference between Louisiana and Florida, this region has not seen the last of oil spills. I go with Florida and the environmental position. Now back to Cambodia.
I am back staying at the same place I stayed in 2 years ago because the apartments are nice, there is no flooding in the torrential rains, it is cooler and there are some good book stores. These are usually not the reasons why I stay somewhere, I usually stay somewhere because of historical value, but I stay somewhere that is safe during the monsoon. When this one is over I am either staying here or going back to India. I think that Thailand is putting off the inevitable saying today is more important that yesterday, tomorrow or quality of life for the "little folk".
This is what I have said for today. I have to get my bearings first.
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