Well, here goes
I wrote a blog yesterday and talked about the fact that I don't know with a certainty that we are secure from a nuclear accident. Because I live in the "Third Word" or the "developing" world, this insecurity is re-inforced every day because I see societies and people that are determined to go their own way. Of course, this includes, nuclear weaponization and security. There is no political cohesion like there is between Europe and America or Russia and America. So, I wrote that somebody is going to break with the pact and try a dirty bomb. India is the most vulnerable country and New York is the most vulnerable city. India is so at risk because it is completely encircled by hostile, ________neighbors: Burma, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, West Bengal. New York is so at risk because there has already been 1 very successful attack on Manhattan in the broad daylight. So far Iran and N. Korea have appeared to be quite willing to develope a dirty bomb; how they are going to use it is the largely unanswered question.
What do the probability studies project about this? I would guess that there is a more than 85%chance that both of these countries will never surrender to some kind of "trust me with a nuclear bomb" scenario.
What we have to figure out is what does this 85% probability include.
These are my thoughts for today.
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